Can I be pregnant with IUD, 13 days late menstrual

Patient : I am a 27 year old female. Since I first got my menstrual cycle, I have never missed a cycle (except when pregnant). It is an average of 28-30 days and usually lasts 6 days. I had my first baby when I was 24 years old. After giving birth, I decided to try out the Paragard IUD. I got in in June 2013 and still "apparently" still have it. I say "apparently" because I am now 13 days late. My last menstrual cycle was August 9th, 2015. I have still to get it in September (today is the 21st). I had a little back pain a week ago but nothing strange or did I think there was something wrong. Yesterday I decided to do a home pregnancy test. It came out negative. Today I decided to visit my doctor. She did a visual examination to see if the strings of the Paragard are in place. She could not see them. She saw a type of mucus plug and scraped it off with a wire brush. She ordered a HCG blood test but it came out so low that it indicates negative. Still is specified that this is not definitive and to repeat in 72 hours. The doctor also ordered to do a two part ultrasound: pelvis and transvaginal to see if the paragard is in place. With all the information given, what are the probabilities that I am pregnant? What did both the home and HCG pregnancy test come out negative? Is this normal even if I am pregnant? If not pregnant, what can be the cause? I have never been late or missed a cycle, not even when I first got the Paragard.
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